RCP 2.6. However, the socio-economic scenario underlying each RCP is just one of many possible scenarios that could be consistent with the concentration pathway. For the Fifth Assessment Report, a new set of scenarios, called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was developed. The RCP8.5 scenario is the closest to a ‘business as usual’ scenario of fossil fuel use, and has comparable forcing to SRES A2 by 2100. The readings this week include a Commentary from the journal Nature about the issue of RCPs and the path forward with SSPs. With all of these scenarios, stabilizing CO2 concentrations requires not just preventing the increase of emissions, but reducing emissions. Some of these relate to the climate system, such as how sensitivethe climate might be to increased concentrations of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. The College of Earth and Mineral Sciences is committed to making its websites accessible to all users, and welcomes comments or suggestions on access improvements. Projecting future climate change involves assessing a number of different uncertainties. What are the major differences between the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)? SOURCE: van Vuuren et. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. RCP Increase in global mean surface temperature (°C) by 2081-2100 Most similar SRES scenario (in terms of temperature) RCP2.6 1.6 (0.9-2.3) None RCP4.5 2.4 (1.7-3.2) SRES B1 (low emissions scenario in UKCP09) RCP6.0 2.8 (2.0-3.7) SRES B2 (between the low and medium emission scenarios in UKCP09) The RCP8.5 scenario is the closest to a ‘business as usual’ scenario of fossil fuel use, and has comparable forcing to SRES A2 by 2100. It requires a major turnaround in climate policies and a … The SRES scenarios are named by family (A1, A2, B1, and B2), where each family is designed around a set of consistent assumptions: for example, a world that is more integrated or more divided. And to keep CO 2 concentrations below this level, we can see that we have to bring emissions to a peak by 2040, and ramp them down to less than half current levels by 2100. 2000). Carbon dioxide emissions for all RCPs except the RCP8.5 scenario peak by 2100. RCP4.5 is similar to SRES B1, but the RCP2.6 scenario is much lower than any SRES scenario because it includes the option of using policies to achieve net negative carbon dioxide emissions before the end of the century, while SRES scenarios do not. pp 570 Available from Cambridge University Press , The Edinburgh Building Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 2RU ENGLAND Cambridge University Press, UK. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES, IPCC, 2000). A set of scenarios referred to as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are in common use to study future climate change. Meinshausen, M., Smith, S.J., Calvin, K et al. Earlier efforts during the 1990s had developed the “SRES” scenarios, which looked at four different possible future trajectories of population, economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. To decrease computing time as much as possible, climate models divide the Earth up into large grid cells. The readings this week include a Commentary from the journal Nature about the issue of RCPs and the path forward with SSPs. For each category of emissions, an RCP contains a set of starting values and the estimated emissions up to 2100, based on assumptions about economic activity, energy sources, population growth and other socio-economic factors. Getting the concentrations actually requires an intermediate step involving the use of simple model of ocean carbon uptake, to account for the effect of oceanic absorption of atmospheric CO 2 . Another (A2, 'a divided world') assumed a greater emphasis on national identities. The final and complete SRES scenario data can be viewed and downloaded following the link below. RCP 2.6. Gross domestic product (GDP) increases in all cases; of note, the RCP2.6 pathway has the highest GDP, though it has the least dependence on fossil fuel sources. From the point of view of controlling future CO 2 concentrations, these graphics can be quite daunting. Whereas SRES scenarios describe ‘what if’ situations if a given amount of carbon dioxide equivalent was emitted, RCPs relate to concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and are essentially cumulative emissions budgets. Available at:: ... GCM-based regional temperature and precipitation change estimates for Europe under four SRES scenarios applying a super-ensemble patternscaling method. Fossil fuel CO2 emissions are shown in the left figure, while the right one shows total CO2 emissions including land use change. rcp 6 In this scenario, emissions double by 2060 and then dramatically fall but remain well above current levels. In particular, they can take into account climate change mitigation policies to limit emissions. The objective of this study is to assess the global impact of sea level rise and to evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation. In the case of the A1 model, there are 4 scenario "groups" based on the possibility … Even in the best case of the SRES scenarios, B1, we will likely reach twice pre-industrial levels (i.e., around 550 ppm) by 2100. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, NY, USA. In particular, they can take into account climate change mitigation policies to limit emissions. Authors: Michael Mann, Professor of Meteorology, Department of Meteorology, College of Earth and Mineral Sciences, The Pennsylvania State University. RCPs RCP 1.9. Projections also include previous IPCC scenarios (IPCC Scenarios 1992a (IS92a), Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1, TAR Appendix II) and some alternative near-term scenarios for meth-ane (CH 4) and short-lived pollutants that impact climate or air quality. However, it is also consistent with a baseline scenario that assumes a global development that focuses on technological improvements and a shift to service industries but does not aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as a goal in itself (similar to the B1 scenario of the SRES scenarios). The aim of this study was the comparison between Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES, IPCC, 2000). 2217 Earth and Engineering Sciences Building, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802 The affected populations and the economic damage caused by inundation due to future climate change are estimated for a number of scenarios involving Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and … In Part 3 we take a look at the scenarios in detail, consider the technical aspects, the differences between the four RCPs, and how they compare to earlier SRES scenarios… Definition of SRES Scenarios: In 1996, the IPCC began the development of a new set of emissions scenarios, effectively to update and replace the IS92 scenarios. For the next IPCC Assessment Report (due in 2021-2022), scientists and modelers are using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which link specific policy decisions with projected emissions outcomes. And to keep CO 2 concentrations below this level, we can see that we have to bring emissions to a peak by 2040, and ramp them down to less than half current levels by 2100. The John A. Dutton e-Education Institute is the learning design unit of the College of Earth and Mineral Sciences at The Pennsylvania State University. The figures below show how historical emissions (black line) compare to the four RCP scenarios as well as the older SRES and IS92 scenarios. DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y. Over the first ten years of these scenarios, observed emissions actually were close to the most carbon intensive of the SRES scenarios—A1FI. To better appreciate the worlds that the RCP scenarios are based on, I have excerpted below the “storylines” for the emission scenarios used in the 2007 IPCC report (AR4). The scenarios are named after the approximate radiative forcing relative to the pre-industrial period achieved either in the year 2100, or at stabilization after 2100. However, these were fast becoming dated and lacked some large changes to society and the global economy that have occurred over the past 20 years. Scientists attempt to create scenarios of future human activity that represent plausible future greenhouse emissions pathways. The RCP8.5 scenario is the closest to a ‘business as usual’ scenario of fossil fuel use, and has comparable forcing to SRES A2 by 2100. One problem with the SRES scenarios—indeed, a fair criticism of them—is that they do not explicitly incorporate carbon emissions controls. From Meteorology to Mitigation: Understanding Global Warming, Lesson 1- Introduction to Climate and Climate Change, Lesson 4 - Modeling of the Climate System, part 1, Lesson 5 - Modeling of the Climate System, part 2, Lesson 7 - Projected Climate Changes, part 1, Lesson 8 - Projected Climate Changes, part 2, Lesson 10 - Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change, Lesson 12 - Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License, Department of Energy and Mineral Engineering, Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, iMPS in Renewable Energy and Sustainability Policy Program Office, BA in Energy and Sustainability Policy Program Office, 2217 Earth and Engineering Sciences Building, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802. In all pathways, global population levels off or starts to decline by 2100; the highest world population (12 billion) is achieved by 2100 in RCP 8.5, Gross Domestic product (GDP) increases in all cases, and interestingly, the highest GDP is realized in the RCP 2.6 scenario. They begin with a set of storylines Another (A2, 'a divided world') assumed a greater emphasis on national identities. RCP 2.6 is a "very stringent" pathway. (2010), and IPCC (2008)). In this paper, future drought characteristics (frequency, duration and intensity) over China are analysed by using four climate models from CMIP6 unde… Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m −2 (approximately 650 ppm CO 2-equivalent) in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value.The defining characteristics of this scenario are enumerated in Moss et al. First, more detailed information is needed for running the current generation of climate models than that provided by any previous scenario sets. This gives you an idea of how challenging the problem of stabilizing carbon emissions at levels lower than twice pre-industrial actually is. In the late 2000s, researchers from different modelling groups around the world began the process of developing new scenarios to explore how the world might change over the rest of the 21st century.Earlier efforts during the 1990s had developed the “ For the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), published back in the year 2000, four alternative scenario families were developed, characterized by socioeconomic storylines that assumed different directions of future development. Energy consumption increases in all scenarios, with non-fossil-carbon-based energy sources most important in RCP 2.6; RCP 8.5 relies heavily on coal, Future emissions differ quite dramatically among the scenarios. For more comprehensive information about any of the SRES emissions scenarios, visit the SRES web site at CIESIN. Global areas of inundation due to sea level rise are identified. The SERS scenario was used (A1F, B2 and B1) while the RCP scenario was (RCP8.5, RCP6 and RCP 4.5). While some of the scenarios involve storylines that embrace generic notions of sustainability and environmental protection, the scenarios do not envision explicit attempts to stabilize CO 2 concentrations at any particular level. 2000). Comparable SRES scenario: B2. The RCP4.5 scenario is analogous to the B1 scenario from AR4; the RCP6.0 scenario is analogous to the A1(b) scenario… You might wonder, what scenario do we actually appear to be following? The RCP8.5 scenario is the closest to a ‘business as usual’ scenario of fossil fuel use, and has comparable forcing to SRES A2 by 2100. (2011a), and for the RCP process and selection see Moss et al. Please send comments or suggestions on accessibility to the site editor. Even the RCPs have encountered a fair bit of criticism. The RCP4.5 and SRES B1 scenarios are comparable; RCP6.0 lies between the SRES B1 and A1B scenarios. 6 c) in 2011–2050 are smaller than those of the SRES scenarios forced by ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Economic activity is prioritized over environmental conservation. original SA90 scenarios19 were replaced by the IS92 emission scenarios of the 1990s,20 which were in turn succeeded by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios in 2000 (SRES)21 and by the Representative Concentration Path-ways in 2010 (RCPs).22 SA90, IS92, and SRES are all emission-based scenarios. The main challenge in the RCP modeling process is to expedite the research process for AR5 and beyond. RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. The RCP2.6 scenario peaks at 3.0 W / m2 before declining to 2.6 W / m2 in 2100, and requires strong mitigation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the 21st century. [36] [38] Energy cannot be seen as a limitless input to economic/climate models and remain disconnected from the physical and logistical realities of supply. Figure 2: Projected New Zealand-average temperatures relative to 1986-2005, for six IPCC 5 th Assessment global climate models, and for the historical simulations (here 1971-2005) and four future simulations (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). The B1 and B2 scenarios assumed more sustainable practices ('utopia'), with more global-focus and regional-focus, respectively. Comparison of carbon dioxide concentrations for the 21st century from the RCPs and SRES scenarios. In previous IPCC assessments, the most widely used and referred-to family of emissions scenarios were the so-called SRES scenarios (for Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) that helped form the basis for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The RCPs span a wider range of possibilities than the SRES emission scenarios. They are referred to as pathways to emphasize that they are not definitive, but are instead internally consistent time-dependent forcing projections that could potentially be realized with multiple socioeconomic scenarios. RCP data is in tables - if you’re familiar with a spreadsheet, the format is somewhat similar. “God help us if 8.5 turns out to be the right scenario,” Jackson told me. RCPs take into account the impact of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols (such as sulfate and soot), along with the uncertainty in possible future emissions. There are four pathways: RCP8.5, RCP6, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 - the last is also referred to as RCP3-PD. Long-term emissions scenarios have served as the primary basis for assessing future climate change and response strategies. 9) SRES A2 scenario - A scenario consistent with the IPCC's SRES A2 storyline. IPCC, 2000: IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Radiative forcing is stabilised shortly after year 2100, which is consistent with the application of a range of technologies and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Even the RCPs have encountered a fair bit of criticism. However, seasonal precipitation and streamflow showed various tendencies under different emission scenarios, and their inner annual distribution patterns tended to change as well. Emissions Scenarios Report IPCC, 2000 – Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart (Eds.) This scenario might be described as the best case for limiting anthropogenic climate change. This leads naturally to our next topic—the topic of stabilization scenarios. The RCP scenarios superseded the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios projections published in 2000 and were based on similar socio-economic models. pp 570 Available from Cambridge University Press , The Edinburgh Building Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 2RU ENGLAND While many scenario assumptions and results of the RCP8.5 are already well Figure 6.2: Observed Historic Emissions Compares with the Various IPCC SRES Scenarios. IPCC, 2000: IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. This leads naturally to our next topic—the topic of stabilization scenarios. For the next IPCC Assessment Report (due in 2021-2022), scientists and modelers are using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which link specific policy decisions with projected emissions outcomes. The numbers on the right show the final radiative forcing at 2100 and give each scenario its name (8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6 W/m²) SOURCE: … ERF The Pennsylvania State University © 2020. Gross domestic product (GDP) increases in all cases; of note, the RCP2.6 pathway has the highest GDP, though it has the least dependence on fossil fuel sources. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that the impacts of climate change has occurred and is going to continue, driven by both past and future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. For example, there is no SRES world in which absolute incomes are constant or falling. A direct comparison between the projections from the two datasets is not possible, as they use different scenarios describing the amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere in the future. Even in the best case of the SRES scenarios, B1, we will likely reach twice pre-industrial levels (i.e., around 550 ppm) by 2100. Let us now directly compare the various SRES scenarios both in terms of their annual rates of carbon emissions, measured in gigatons (Gt) of carbon (1Gt = 1012 tons), and the resulting trajectories of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Brian Gaudet, Assistant Research Professor, Department of Meteorology, College of Earth and Mineral Sciences, The Pennsylvania State University. Key points • Starting point: non-mitigation SRES scenarios (SRES= Special Report on Emission Scenarios, 2000) • Decisions taken by IPCC about development of scenarios for AR5 • Parallel approach with fast-track RCPs • RCPs: Representative Concentration Pathways • NB: Socio-economic aspects covered in Ramon Pichs talk 2 The changes in annual streamflow at the Jiamusi hydrological station (Fig. Emissions scenarios are a way to help us understand what the future could look like. The RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios stabilize after 2100 at 4.2 W / m2 and 6.0 W / m2, respectively. Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al. Therefore, it is important… Four different narrative storylines were developed to describe consistently the relationships between emission driving forces and their evolution and add context for the scenario quantification. While some of the scenarios involve storylines that embrace generic notions of sustainability and environmental protection, the scenarios do not envision explicit attempts to stabilize CO 2 concentrations at any particular level. Contact Us, Privacy & Legal Statements | Copyright Information For example, the second-to-lowest RCP could be considered as a moderate mitigation scenario. Each scenario is divided into one of four "families" (A1, A2, B1, B2), each with common themes (e.g: Population changes, energy sources, economic development, etc.). They were created with 'integrated assessment models' that include climate, economic, land use, demographic, and energy-usage effects, whose greenhouse gas concentrations were then converted to an emissions trajectory using carbon cycle models. Carbon dioxide emissions for all RCPs except the RCP8.5 scenario peak by 2100. RCPs RCP 1.9. Non-SRES Scenario: 1PTO4X (1% to quadruple) Experiments run with greenhouse gasses increasing from pre-industrial levels at a rate of 1% per year until the concentration has quadrupled and held constant thereafter. In all pathways, global population levels off or starts to decline by 2100; the highest world population (12 billion) is achieved by 2100 in RCP 8.5, Gross Domestic product (GDP) increases in all cases, and interestingly, the highest GDP is realized in the RCP 2.6 scenario. Radiative forcing is stabilised shortly after year 2100, which is consistent with the application of a range of technologies and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The changes in areal annual precipitation under the three RCP scenarios (Fig. In previous IPCC assessments, the most widely used and referred-to family of emissions scenarios were the so-called SRES scenarios (for Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) that helped form the basis for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The site editor may also be contacted with questions or comments about this Open Educational Resource. RCP 2.6. Figure 6.5: RCP Carbon Dioxide Emission Scenarios. al. The new scenarios are called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Furthermore, precipitation and streamflow had more obvious increasing tendencies under the RCP scenarios than the SRES scenarios. For more comprehensive information about any of the SRES emissions scenarios, visit the SRES web site at CIESIN. Figure 6.4: RCP Gross Domestic Product Scenarios. The RCP4.5 and SRES B1 scenarios are comparable; RCP6.0 lies between the SRES B1 and A1B scenarios. They are referred to as pathways to emphasize that they are not definitive, but are instead internally consistent time-dependent forcing projections that could potentially be realized with multiple socioeconomic scenarios. RCP1.9 is a pathway that limits global warming to below 1.5 °C, the aspirational goal of the Paris Agreement. Figure 6.2: Observed Historic Emissions Compares with the Various IPCC SRES Scenarios. 1992) and, more recently, the scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al. IAM SSP-RCP scenario (e.g., SSP3-4.5) The Scenario Matrix Architecture IAV study Socioeconomic information Climate information. Figure 6.3a: RCP Global Population Scenarios, Click here for text description of Figure 6.3a, Figure 6.3b: RCP Global Population Scenarios. (Version 1.1 of the GHG emissions associated with the 40 SRES scenarios provided here are not completely identical to those in Appendix VII of the SRES … These scenarios provide a range of possible futures, based on a range of future emissions. RCP4.5 is similar to SRES B1, but the RCP2.6 scenario is much lower than any SRES scenario because it includes the option of using policies to achieve net negative carbon dioxide emissions before the end of the century, while SRES scenarios do not. One problem with the SRES scenarios—indeed, a fair criticism of them—is that they do not explicitly incorporate carbon emissions controls. Ideally, these scenarios span the range of possible future emissions pathways, so that they can be used as a basis for exploring a realistic set of future projections of climate change. The RCP 4.5 scenario is a stabilization scenario, which means the radiative forcing level stabilizes at 4.5 W/m 2 before 2100 by employment of a range of technologies and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The term pathway emphasises that not only the long-term concentration levels are of interest, but also the trajectory taken over time to reach that outcome (Moss et al., 2010). With all of these scenarios, stabilizing CO2 concentrations requires not just preventing the increase of emissions, but reducing emissions. Meinshausen, M., Smith, S.J., Calvin, K et al. Except where otherwise noted, content on this site is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 109:33-57. Prepared by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The RCP4.5 scenario is analogous to the B1 scenario from AR4; the RCP6.0 scenario is analogous to the A1(b) scenario… (2011) Radiative forcing for the different RCPs. The term pathway emphasises that not only the long-term concentration levels are of interest, but also the trajectory taken over time to reach that outcome (Moss et al., 2010). In terms of overall forcing, RCP8.5 is broadly comparable to the SRES A2/A1FI scenario, RCP6.0 to B2 and RCP4.5 to … In the A2 scenario, global population levels reach 15 billion by 2100. In Part 3 we take a look at the scenarios in detail, consider the technical aspects, the differences between the four RCPs, and how they compare to earlier SRES scenarios. The word representative signifies that each RCP provides only one of many possible scenarios that would lead to the specific radiative forcing characteristics. 6 d) are similar to those of the precipitation under the RCP scenarios. In the past, several sets of scenarios have performed such a role, including the IS92 scenarios (Leggett et al. Figure 1. Depending on the path chosen by society, we could plausibly approach CO 2 concentrations that are quadruple pre-industrial levels by 2100. Benefits of using RCPs You might wonder, what scenario do we actually appear to be following? Non-SRES Scenario: 1PTO4X (1% to quadruple) Experiments run with greenhouse gasses increasing from pre-industrial levels at a rate of 1% per year until the concentration has quadrupled and held constant thereafter. These scenarios made varying assumptions ('storylines') regarding future global population growth, technological development, globalization, and societal values. For global climate models (GCMs) that cover the globe, grid cells are often larger than 100 kilometres (km). The RCP2.6 scenario peaks at 3.0 W / m2 before declining to 2.6 W / m2 in 2100, and requires strong mitigation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the 21st century. The dotted lines indicate four of the SRES marker scenarios. One (the A1 'one global family' storyline chosen by Michael Mann and Lee Kump in version 1 of Dire Predictions) assumed a future of globalization and rapid economic and technological growth, including fossil fuel intensive (A1FI), non-fossil fuel intensive (A1T), and balanced (A1B) versions. In addition to these publications which describe the original scenarios that were selected to become the starting point for developing the RCPs, a special issue of Climatic Change provides more detailed information on the further development steps of these scenarios in the RCP process (e.g. Getting the concentrations actually requires an intermediate step involving the use of simple model of ocean carbon uptake, to account for the effect of oceanic absorption of atmospheric CO 2 . The largest growth and cumulative release of CO2 is associated with the RCAP 8.5 fossil-fuel-intensive scenario, while the smallest is associated with the RCP 2.6 scenario. from the co-called A2r scenario (Riahi et al. These scenarios made varying assumptions ('storylines') regarding future global population growth, technological development, globalization, and societal values. Ideally, these scenarios span the range of possible future emissions pathways, so that they can be used as a basis for exploring a realistic set of future projections of climate change. Each of these processes can be simulated in a climate model. Second, there is an Earth System Models project a global increase in ocean acidification for all RCP scenarios by the end of the 21st century, with a slow recovery after mid-century under RCP2.6. The RCPs span a wider range of possibilities than the SRES marker scenarios used in the modelling for the IPCC 3rd and Others involve the quantity of gases emitted, using energy system models to simulate different scenarios of future emissions. As pointed out by Moss et al. harmonization of base year emissions and landuse cover) and guidance on the use of the RCPs. Scientists attempt to create scenarios of future human activity that represent plausible future greenhouse emissions pathways. (2010), the research community currently needs new scenarios. Its findings will be based on a new set of scenarios that replace the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) standards employed in two previous reports. Over the first ten years of these scenarios, observed emissions actually were close to the most carbon intensive of the SRES scenarios—A1FI. This courseware module is part of Penn State's College of Earth and Mineral Sciences' OER Initiative. (2008, 2010). Emissions from biomass burning are included as anthropogenic. The RCPs cover a wider range than the scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) used in previous assessments, as they also represent scenarios with climate policy. The roadmap gives a simple taxonomy that compares input parameters, as represented by the four scenario families, and emission outputs, as represented by the 1990 to 2100 cumulative CO 2 emissions. What is SRES Scenarios? The RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios stabilize after 2100 at 4.2 W / m 2 and 6.0 W / m 2, respectively. Let us now directly compare the various SRES scenarios both in terms of their annual rates of carbon emissions, measured in gigatons (Gt) of carbon (1Gt = 1012 tons), and the resulting trajectories of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. These models are so complex it can take weeks to run one simulation, even with supercomputers. Challenges. The RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios stabilize after 2100 at 4.2 W / m 2 and 6.0 W / m 2, respectively. The storylines were created along two dimensions – global vs. regional development patterns and whether economic or environmental concerns would be primary. RCP8.5 is closest to A1FI, RCP6 is closest to A1B, RCP4.5 is similar to B1, and RCP2.6 is lower than any of the standard SRES scenarios (Data from Meinshausen et al 2011 and IPCC TAR WG1 Appendix 2). From the point of view of controlling future CO 2 concentrations, these graphics can be quite daunting. The approved new set of scenarios is described in the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) ( IPCC 2000 ). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, NY, USA. To try and capture a range of possible future emissions, energy syste… Of how challenging the problem of stabilizing carbon emissions controls - a consistent. Scenarios assumed more sustainable practices ( 'utopia ' ) assumed a greater emphasis on identities! By many elements, including ocean temperatures, clouds, rainfall and growth. Time as much as possible, climate models that are quadruple pre-industrial levels 2100... 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